Number 15

In El Gordo de la Primitiva under the 5/54 + 1/9 · since Jan 2010 rules — 866 draws, 5 from 1–54.

85times drawn · chance expected 80 +0.56σ

50draws waiting · a wait this long: 0.9% for any number

9.6average wait between appearances · chance says 10.8

40longest completed wait · 85% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 85 times in 866 draws against 80.2 expected, +0.56σ. Each draw is independent: after 50 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 85 times in 866 draws · average wait 9.6 draws · longest completed wait 40 · waiting 50 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest19 · chance 23.9
2nd smallest44 · chance 37.1
3rd smallest16 · chance 19.6
4th smallest6 · chance 4.1
5th smallest0 · chance 0.3

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 6.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

11 35 34 3 33 2

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 53 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 54. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2025-10-26	16	1st	15 17 46 50 51
2025-07-06	12	2nd	6 15 18 23 25
2025-04-13	10	2nd	14 15 21 24 48
2025-02-02	18	2nd	2 15

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/54 tonight whatever it did last week.

Loading…

Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest19 · chance 23.9

2nd smallest44 · chance 37.1

3rd smallest16 · chance 19.6

4th smallest6 · chance 4.1

5th smallest0 · chance 0.3

How many people play it

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

Date

Wait

Position

The draw

2025-10-26

1st

15 17 46 50 51

2025-07-06

2nd

6 15 18 23 25

2025-04-13

2nd

14 15 21 24 48

2025-02-02

2nd

2 15

2021-05-09	1	2nd	3 15 20 37 44
2021-05-02	3	1st	15 17 19 33 43
2021-04-11	5	3rd	5 7 15 16 18
2021-03-07	18	1st	15 24 40 42 48
2020-11-01	29	2nd	6 15 29 34 36
2020-02-02	2	2nd	8 15 22 38 45
2020-01-19	5	1st	15 18 39 43 54
2019-12-15	9	3rd	5 13 15 27 38
2019-10-13	28	1st	15 16 27 32 35
2019-03-31	3	3rd	8 12 15 24 33
2019-03-10	2	1st	15 19 35 36 37
2019-02-24	7	2nd	4 15 31 37 49
2019-01-06	8	4th	7 12 13 15 37
2018-11-11	10	2nd	2 15 42 46 53
2018-09-02	30	2nd	13 15 24 27 42
2018-02-04	35	2nd	3 15 17 52 53
2017-06-04	5	2nd	6 15 22 29 54
2017-04-30	13	2nd	6 15 30 34 44
2017-01-29	20	1st	15 40 41 49 51
2016-09-11	8	2nd	11 15 39 42 48
2016-07-17	10	3rd	1 14 15 36 52
2016-05-08	3	2nd	1 15 18 32 34
2016-04-17	2	3rd	9 10 15 36 47
2016-04-03	1	3rd	2 3 15 26 52
2016-03-27	5	1st	15 19 21 28 33
2016-02-21	5	1st	15 34 37 49 51
2016-01-17	26	3rd	6 8 15 19 22
2015-07-19	2	2nd	10 15 25 28 40
2015-07-05	1	3rd	2 13 15 17 43
2015-06-28	8	1st	15 19 44 47 48
2015-05-03	6	2nd	4 15 18 29 30
2015-03-22	6	2nd	11 15 36 42 48
2015-02-08	6	2nd	14 15 22 49 52
2014-12-28	11	3rd	5 6 15 34 53
2014-10-12	17	2nd	5 15 17 38 47
2014-06-15	2	3rd	6 11 15 24 38
2014-06-01	2	2nd	13 15 34 44 54
2014-05-18	7	1st	15 25 27 28 40
2014-03-30	4	2nd	11 15 18 23 40
2014-03-02	15	2nd	9 15 24 38 39
2013-11-17	40	2nd	13 15 34 36 50
2013-02-10	17	4th	7 9 11 15 48
2012-10-14	16	2nd	3 15 19 35 51
2012-06-24	6	3rd	4 11 15 21 35
2012-05-13	19	2nd	12 15 33 34 44
2012-01-01	8	3rd	10 14 15 27 34
2011-11-06	2	1st	15 22 42 43 47
2011-10-23	3	4th	6 11 13 15 53
2011-10-02	19	2nd	11 15 19 27 35
2011-05-22	9	4th	1 3 7 15 28
2011-03-20	7	2nd	10 15 17 32 35
2011-01-30	5	2nd	2 15 18 35 49
2010-12-26	4	1st	15 33 34 46 54
2010-11-28	1	2nd	3 15 27 50 53
2010-11-21	1	2nd	10 15 18 33 54
2010-11-14	5	2nd	14 15 37 38 51
2010-10-10	2	2nd	14 15 17 28 46
2010-09-26	14	4th	4 5 11 15 50
2010-06-20	11	1st	15 28 31 45 52
2010-04-04	3	1st	15 32 36 45 47
2010-03-14	—	1st	15 30 36 40 43