Number 40

In El Gordo de la Primitiva under the 5/54 + 1/9 · since Jan 2010 rules — 866 draws, 5 from 1–54.

75times drawn · chance expected 80 −0.61σ

24draws waiting · a wait this long: 11% for any number

11.4average wait between appearances · chance says 10.8

52longest completed wait · 41% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 75 times in 866 draws against 80.2 expected, −0.61σ. Each draw is independent: after 24 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 75 times in 866 draws · average wait 11.4 draws · longest completed wait 52 · waiting 24 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.3
2nd smallest7 · chance 3.6
3rd smallest20 · chance 17.3
4th smallest30 · chance 32.8
5th smallest18 · chance 21.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 5.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

54 8 12 18 23 42

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 53 numbers; chance expected about 0.2 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 54. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-04-26	2	4th	19 21 24 40 54
2026-04-12	12	4th	4 11 32 40 54
2026-01-18	22	4th	5 33 34 40 45
2025-08-17	5	4th	8 23

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/54 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-09-06	16	4th	8 10 26 40 43
2020-03-08	6	2nd	38 40 44 49 51
2020-01-26	9	4th	1 12 21 40 54
2019-11-24	15	3rd	13 24 40 48 54
2019-08-11	4	4th	3 7 18 40 53
2019-07-14	12	3rd	12 18 40 42 51
2019-04-21	9	4th	16 22 38 40 46
2019-02-17	1	3rd	2 18 40 48 53
2019-02-10	18	4th	12 25 33 40 52
2018-10-07	12	4th	27 35 36 40 45
2018-07-15	1	3rd	3 21 40 42 49
2018-07-08	10	5th	11 19 22 29 40
2018-04-29	9	3rd	13 21 40 42 52
2018-02-25	2	5th	4 17 25 33 40
2018-02-11	10	5th	1 3 6 29 40
2017-12-03	16	4th	1 11 18 40 50
2017-08-13	5	5th	9 19 33 37 40
2017-07-09	13	3rd	7 29 40 41 46
2017-04-09	10	5th	2 4 22 34 40
2017-01-29	1	2nd	15 40 41 49 51
2017-01-22	16	5th	11 20 23 32 40
2016-10-02	17	5th	9 12 34 35 40
2016-06-05	17	5th	3 8 22 23 40
2016-02-07	26	3rd	3 14 40 49 51
2015-08-09	3	2nd	28 40 48 52 54
2015-07-19	6	5th	10 15 25 28 40
2015-06-07	9	4th	8 16 34 40 50
2015-04-05	20	5th	7 12 34 35 40
2014-11-16	25	2nd	22 40 42 46 48
2014-05-25	1	3rd	9 26 40 47 51
2014-05-18	7	5th	15 25 27 28 40
2014-03-30	15	5th	11 15 18 23 40
2013-12-15	11	4th	3 20 24 40 46
2013-09-29	3	3rd	2 26 40 42 54
2013-09-08	12	3rd	34 39 40 43 44
2013-06-16	13	3rd	22 37 40 52 54
2013-03-17	12	5th	2 8 21 24 40
2012-12-23	16	3rd	12 18 40 42 54
2012-09-02	3	4th	29 31 36 40 53
2012-08-12	3	2nd	8 40 41 44 52
2012-07-22	11	3rd	12 35 40 45 53
2012-05-06	2	4th	7 14 29 40 41
2012-04-22	45	4th	23 33 36 40 48
2011-06-12	21	2nd	9 40 47 53 54
2011-01-16	22	4th	1 6 13 40 45
2010-08-15	9	5th	3 6 23 28 40
2010-06-13	1	3rd	20 36 40 50 54
2010-06-06	12	4th	23 32 36 40 50
2010-03-14	8	4th	15 30 36 40 43
2010-01-17	1	4th	24 30 39 40 50
2010-01-10	—	5th	6 9 12 23 40