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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
ES · ball game
Latest drawSunday, 11 October 2026
Jackpot€18,600,000
Top prizeNot won — 25 draws unwon
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 12 Oct 2026, 01:20 UTC.
5 numbers from 1–54, plus 1 from 0–9. 866 draws held here since 2010-01-03.
Your numbers, read by every tool
Type the numbers you always play. Has the line ever come up? How close has El Gordo de la Primitiva come? What has each number done, what does the line look like, and has the same set turned up anywhere else in the world?
Every tool, for this game
Each one opens with El Gordo de la Primitiva already selected. The line under every title is true of this game’s rules right now — not a promise about its next draw.

In 866 draws every number is expected about 80 times, and a ball favoured by more than 44% over its share would already have shown — see which ones strayed, and how far chance allows.

A number waits 11 draws on average; 5% of the time it waits 32 or more. It is never “due”.

The 5 numbers add up to about 138, give or take 34. Most tickets sit in that bell — and so do most draws.

33.0% of draws contain two numbers side by side. That is the rules talking, not luck.

1,431 possible pairs, each expected together 6.1 times so far — and about 14 will look “special” by chance alone.

All 54 numbers as a constellation of who appeared with whom — indistinguishable from a shuffled sky.

40% of draws repeat a number from the draw before. A whole draw repeating: 11.2% likely by now.

Sorted, the numbers sit about 9.2 apart on average — and every “spread” you can name is exactly as likely as every other.

It takes about 48 draws for every one of the 54 numbers to appear at least once. The last few are the slow ones.

31,625,100 possible tickets. Every one has a face — and a typicality score you can look up.

Seven independent tests of randomness run live against all 866 draws. Any of them can fail; watch whether they do.

The lowest number lands near 9, the highest near 46. Position is a property of sorting, not of the balls.

5/54 rescaled onto the same axes as every other game here. One law, many machines.

Six documented cases of a beaten lottery. Not one involved patterns in past draws.

What the world believes about 7, 8, 13 and 17 — and what every machine says back.

At 30 million tickets, an average line keeps about 11% of a jackpot it wins. Unpopular numbers keep more — and still lose money.

A full wheel of 10 numbers here is 252 tickets. A guarantee is real; a profit is not.

Five folk claims about 5/54 games, each answered with the closed form that kills it — never a tip for the next draw.
Take the record with youRSSJSON feedCSV, every drawDraw nights, in your calendarAPI

This is a without-replacement ball game; the Digit Laboratory is for Pick 3 and Pick 4.
Not for this game
The Chernoff Map reads the straight tier of a digit game, which counts tickets on one exact number; a ball game has no such row.
Not for this game
This game draws once a day, so it has no second draw to compare its first with.
Not for this gameThis draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 October 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 44 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 29% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 80 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 865 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (27, 43, 49, 52) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 25 July 2021 — its closest relative in 865 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 6.5% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (4 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 176 — the 87th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. No two numbers side by side. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →49 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈4.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: 3+1 — 850 winners, 49% fewer than the 1.7k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| 5+1 | 0 | €0.00 |
| 5+0 | 2 | €86,737 |
| 4+1 | 14 | €2,253 |
| 4+0 | 146 | €252 |
| 3+1 | 850 | €49.48 |
| 3+0 | 8,034 | €17.01 |
| 2+1 | 14,585 | €7.21 |
| 2+0 | 130,635 | €3.00 |
| 0+1 | 271,205 | €1.50 |
What the top prize has been, draw by draw. It climbs while nobody wins and drops to the floor when somebody does — the sawtooth every rollover game draws.
The jackpot has gone 0 draws without a winner. The typical wait here is 0.0 draws.
Happenedwhat chance predicts
Completed waits between wins, against the geometric law those waits follow if every draw is an independent chance at the jackpot. The law takes its one parameter from the waits themselves, so this compares shape, not level.
Open any draw to read it by every tool — the same six readings the latest result gets above, each against what chance predicted at the time.
| Draws waited | Happened | Chance says |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 860 | 860.0 |
| 1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ | 0 | 0.0 |
Times drawn before — chance expected 87 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 865 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 55% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 80 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 864 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 20, 41) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 August 2026 — its closest relative in 864 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (27 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 113 — the 23th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →3 had not appeared for 31 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 65 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 84% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 80 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 863 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 33, 51) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 17 December 2023 — its closest relative in 863 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (20 September 2026): 21 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 152 — the 66th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. No two numbers side by side. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →51 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 56 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 60% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 80 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 862 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 28, 45) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 January 2024 — its closest relative in 862 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (13 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 118 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. No two numbers side by side. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →1 had not appeared for 45 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 64% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 80 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 861 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (5, 25, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 18 June 2023 — its closest relative in 861 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (6 September 2026): 25 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 3 repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 159 — the 73th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. No two numbers side by side. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →5 had not appeared for 33 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 55% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 80 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 860 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (27, 30, 50) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 9 July 2023 — its closest relative in 860 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (30 August 2026): 50 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 178 — the 88th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. No two numbers side by side. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →27 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 65 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 84% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 80 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 859 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 29, 50) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 June 2026 — its closest relative in 859 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (23 August 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 162 — the 76th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. No two numbers side by side. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →33 had not appeared for 32 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 60 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 72% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 79 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 858 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 20, 48) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 17 December 2017 — its closest relative in 858 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (16 August 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 120 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. No two numbers side by side. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →20 had not appeared for 34 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 43 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 26% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 79 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 857 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 8, 11) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 July 2025 — its closest relative in 857 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (9 August 2026): 31 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 92 — the 9th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →7 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.0× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 45 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 32% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 79 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 856 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (22, 25, 32) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 5 January 2020 — its closest relative in 856 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (2 August 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 138 — the 50th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. Side-by-side numbers: 31–32. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →31 had not appeared for 37 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 62 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 78% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 79 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 855 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (23, 29, 35) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 June 2026 — its closest relative in 855 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (26 July 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 154 — the 68th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. No two numbers side by side. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →16 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 61 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 73% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 79 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 854 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (22, 38, 46) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 16 February 2025 — its closest relative in 854 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (19 July 2026): 38 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 153 — the 67th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 138. Side-by-side numbers: 38–39. 33% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →8 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 15% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →