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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Every number
How often each number has come up, next to how often chance says it should. Any number opens its own page. Back to Mega Millions
Only 158 draws in this format era, so each number is expected just 11.3 times. That is too few to tell a real pattern from noise; about 420 draws are needed.
Across 158 draws, each number is expected about 11 times. Not one stands out, even before allowing for the fact that testing all 70 numbers at once would throw up about 0.7 apparent findings by luck alone. Nothing survives it: these draws behave exactly as random draws should.
| Number | Drawn | Expected | Deviation | σ | Last seen | Draws since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 18 | 11.3 | +2.07 | 2026-10-02 | 2 | |
| 42 | 18 | 11.3 | +2.07 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | |
| 17 | 17 | 11.3 | +1.77 | 2026-09-08 | 9 | |
| 18 | 17 | 11.3 | +1.77 | 2026-07-31 | 20 | |
| 49 | 17 | 11.3 | +1.77 | 2026-07-28 | 21 | |
| 63 | 17 | 11.3 | +1.77 | 2026-10-09 | 0 | |
| 10 | 16 | 11.3 | +1.46 | 2026-09-29 | 3 | |
| 30 | 16 | 11.3 | +1.46 | 2026-09-11 | 8 | |
| 43 | 16 | 11.3 | +1.46 | 2026-09-15 | 7 | |
| 56 | 16 | 11.3 | +1.46 | 2026-09-18 | 6 | |
| 27 | 15 | 11.3 | +1.15 | 2026-09-29 | 3 | |
| 34 | 15 | 11.3 | +1.15 | 2026-09-04 | 10 | |
| 58 | 15 | 11.3 | +1.15 | 2026-09-25 | 4 | |
| 13 | 14 | 11.3 | +0.84 | 2026-09-22 | 5 | |
| 16 | 14 | 11.3 | +0.84 | 2026-10-09 | 0 | |
| 24 | 14 | 11.3 | +0.84 | 2026-09-18 | 6 | |
| 38 | 14 | 11.3 | +0.84 | 2026-08-18 | 15 | |
| 48 | 14 | 11.3 | +0.84 | 2026-08-25 | 13 | |
| 59 | 14 | 11.3 | +0.84 | 2026-09-04 | 10 | |
| 68 | 14 | 11.3 | +0.84 | 2026-09-25 | 4 | |
| 2 | 13 | 11.3 | +0.53 | 2026-10-09 | 0 | |
| 6 | 13 | 11.3 | +0.53 | 2026-10-02 | 2 | |
| 11 | 13 | 11.3 | +0.53 | 2026-03-20 | 58 | |
| 21 | 13 | 11.3 | +0.53 | 2026-08-04 | 19 | |
| 55 | 13 | 11.3 | +0.53 | 2026-10-02 | 2 | |
| 22 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.22 | 2026-09-01 | 11 | |
| 26 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.22 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | |
| 36 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.22 | 2026-09-15 | 7 | |
| 50 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.22 | 2026-08-25 | 13 | |
| 51 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.22 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | |
| 57 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.22 | 2026-09-25 | 4 | |
| 62 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.22 | 2026-09-11 | 8 | |
| 4 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.09 | 2026-09-18 | 6 | |
| 19 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.09 | 2026-08-18 | 15 | |
| 33 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.09 | 2026-09-11 | 8 | |
| 37 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.09 | 2026-10-02 | 2 | |
| 41 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.09 | 2026-10-02 | 2 | |
| 47 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.09 | 2026-08-25 | 13 | |
| 52 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.09 | 2026-06-26 | 30 | |
| 5 | 10 | 11.3 | -0.40 | 2026-08-18 | 15 | |
| 12 | 10 | 11.3 | -0.40 | 2026-06-16 | 33 | |
| 25 | 10 | 11.3 | -0.40 | 2026-09-25 | 4 | |
| 31 | 10 | 11.3 | -0.40 | 2026-07-07 | 27 | |
| 39 | 10 | 11.3 | -0.40 | 2026-07-10 | 26 | |
| 60 | 10 | 11.3 | -0.40 | 2026-08-14 | 16 | |
| 66 | 10 | 11.3 | -0.40 | 2026-09-08 | 9 | |
| 7 | 9 | 11.3 | -0.71 | 2026-10-09 | 0 | |
| 14 | 9 | 11.3 | -0.71 | 2026-08-04 | 19 | |
| 64 | 9 | 11.3 | -0.71 | 2026-09-29 | 3 | |
| 70 | 9 | 11.3 | -0.71 | 2026-10-09 | 0 | |
| 1 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-09-01 | 11 | |
| 8 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-08-28 | 12 | |
| 9 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-09-18 | 6 | |
| 15 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-09-29 | 3 | |
| 32 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | |
| 44 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-07-24 | 22 | |
| 53 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-09-11 | 8 | |
| 54 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | |
| 61 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-09-04 | 10 | |
| 65 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-08-04 | 19 | |
| 69 | 8 | 11.3 | -1.01 | 2026-04-14 | 51 | |
| 3 | 7 | 11.3 | -1.32 | 2026-09-11 | 8 | |
| 20 | 7 | 11.3 | -1.32 | 2026-08-11 | 17 | |
| 23 | 7 | 11.3 | -1.32 | 2026-08-14 | 16 | |
| 35 | 7 | 11.3 | -1.32 | 2026-07-07 | 27 | |
| 45 | 7 | 11.3 | -1.32 | 2026-07-17 | 24 | |
| 46 | 7 | 11.3 | -1.32 | 2026-08-14 | 16 | |
| 29 | 6 | 11.3 | -1.63 | 2026-08-28 | 12 | |
| 67 | 6 | 11.3 | -1.63 | 2026-09-25 | 4 | |
| 28 | 5 | 11.3 | -1.94 | 2026-03-27 | 56 |
A separate machine drawing 1 from 1–24, with its own expectation of about 7 per number.
| Number | Drawn | Expected | Deviation | σ | Last seen | Draws since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 13 | 6.6 | +2.55 | 2026-08-18 | 15 | |
| 16 | 11 | 6.6 | +1.76 | 2026-09-25 | 4 | |
| 24 | 11 | 6.6 | +1.76 | 2026-09-04 | 10 | |
| 1 | 9 | 6.6 | +0.96 | 2026-09-18 | 6 | |
| 7 | 9 | 6.6 | +0.96 | 2026-05-29 | 38 | |
| 2 | 8 | 6.6 | +0.56 | 2026-08-28 | 12 | |
| 10 | 8 | 6.6 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. Each draw is independent: a number absent for fifty draws is exactly as likely to appear tonight as one drawn yesterday. The point of comparing against expectation is to show when a difference is ordinary — which, in a fair draw, it almost always is.
| +0.56 |
| 2026-10-02 |
| 2 |
| 6 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.17 | 2026-06-26 | 30 |
| 8 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.17 | 2026-10-09 | 0 |
| 17 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.17 | 2026-09-01 | 11 |
| 23 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.17 | 2026-09-29 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.23 | 2026-07-31 | 20 |
| 9 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.23 | 2026-03-13 | 60 |
| 14 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.23 | 2026-08-25 | 13 |
| 22 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.23 | 2026-10-06 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | 6.6 | -0.63 | 2026-06-12 | 34 |
| 5 | 5 | 6.6 | -0.63 | 2026-01-27 | 73 |
| 18 | 5 | 6.6 | -0.63 | 2025-12-19 | 84 |
| 19 | 5 | 6.6 | -0.63 | 2026-02-06 | 70 |
| 21 | 5 | 6.6 | -0.63 | 2026-08-04 | 19 |
| 20 | 4 | 6.6 | -1.03 | 2026-09-08 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | 6.6 | -1.43 | 2026-08-14 | 16 |
| 13 | 3 | 6.6 | -1.43 | 2026-01-30 | 72 |
| 15 | 2 | 6.6 | -1.82 | 2026-04-28 | 47 |