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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · every number · star deck
In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 160 draws, 1 from 1–24.
Drawn 5 times in 160 draws against 6.7 expected, −0.66σ. Each draw is independent: after 86 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 5 times in 160 draws · average wait 15.0 draws · longest completed wait 35 · waiting 86 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 18 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
No shared draws yet.
Never drawn alongside 23 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 23 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 18 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 18 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 7 | 1st | 18 |
| 2025-11-25 | 10 | 1st | 18 |
| 2025-10-21 | 8 | 1st | 18 |
| 2025-09-23 | 35 | 1st | 18 |
| 2025-05-23 | — | 1st | 18 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 18 is drawn with probability 1/24 tonight whatever it did last week.