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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
US · AZ · ball game
Latest drawFriday, 9 October 2026
Jackpot$364,000,000
Top prizeNot won — 16 draws unwonnext draw advertised at $385,000,000
Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 10 Oct 2026, 06:32 UTC.
5 numbers from 1–70, plus 1 from 1–24. 3,067 draws held here since 1996-09-06 — 158 under the current rules.
Mega Millions changed its number pool then, which started a new era. Only the 158 draws since count towards number statistics — mixing draws from before a rule change would make any frequency meaningless.
Your numbers, read by every tool
Type the numbers you always play. Has the line ever come up? How close has Mega Millions come? What has each number done, what does the line look like, and has the same set turned up anywhere else in the world?
Every tool, for this game
Each one opens with Mega Millions already selected. The line under every title is true of this game’s rules right now — not a promise about its next draw.

In 158 draws every number is expected about 11 times, and a ball favoured by more than 121% over its share would already have shown — see which ones strayed, and how far chance allows.

A number waits 14 draws on average; 5% of the time it waits 42 or more. It is never “due”.

The 5 numbers add up to about 178, give or take 44. Most tickets sit in that bell — and so do most draws.

26.2% of draws contain two numbers side by side. That is the rules talking, not luck.

2,415 possible pairs, each expected together 0.7 times so far — and about 24 will look “special” by chance alone.

All 70 numbers as a constellation of who appeared with whom — indistinguishable from a shuffled sky.

32% of draws repeat a number from the draw before. A whole draw repeating: 0.1% likely by now.

Sorted, the numbers sit about 11.8 apart on average — and every “spread” you can name is exactly as likely as every other.

It takes about 66 draws for every one of the 70 numbers to appear at least once. The last few are the slow ones.

290,472,336 possible tickets. Every one has a face — and a typicality score you can look up.

Seven independent tests of randomness run live against all 158 draws. Any of them can fail; watch whether they do.

The lowest number lands near 12, the highest near 59. Position is a property of sorting, not of the balls.

5/70 rescaled onto the same axes as every other game here. One law, many machines.

Six documented cases of a beaten lottery. Not one involved patterns in past draws.

What the world believes about 7, 8, 13 and 17 — and what every machine says back.

At 30 million tickets, an average line keeps about 37% of a jackpot it wins. Unpopular numbers keep more — and still lose money.

A full wheel of 10 numbers here is 252 tickets. A guarantee is real; a profit is not.

Five folk claims about 5/70 games, each answered with the closed form that kills it — never a tip for the next draw.
Take the record with youRSSJSON feedCSV, every drawDraw nights, in your calendarAPI

Lock a past-only rule, score it on later draws, and compare every hit with the exact 5-of-70 overlap law.

This is a without-replacement ball game; the Digit Laboratory is for Pick 3 and Pick 4.
Not for this game
The Chernoff Map reads the straight tier of a digit game, which counts tickets on one exact number; a ball game has no such row.
Not for this game
This game draws once a day, so it has no second draw to compare its first with.
Not for this gameThis draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 9 October 2026 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 47 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 33% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 157 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (2, 63) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 7 July 2026 — its closest relative in 157 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (6 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 158 — the 33th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →2 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 25% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈5.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 plus Mega Ball — 8,864 winners, 7% more than the 8.3k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5 + Mega Ball | 0 | $364,000,000 |
| Match 5 (10x Multiplier) | 0 | $10,000,000 |
| Match 5 (5x Multiplier) | 0 | $5,000,000 |
| Match 5 (4x Multiplier) | 0 | $4,000,000 |
| Match 5 (3x Multiplier) | 0 | $3,000,000 |
| Match 5 (2x Multiplier) | 0 | $2,000,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 0 | $100,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 1 | $50,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 0 | $40,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 2 | $30,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 3 | $20,000 |
| Match 4 (10x Multiplier) | 4 | $5,000 |
| Match 4 (5x Multiplier) | 8 | $2,500 |
| Match 4 (4x Multiplier) | 16 | $2,000 |
| Match 4 (3x Multiplier) | 21 | $1,500 |
| Match 4 (2x Multiplier) | 50 | $1,000 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 12 | $2,000 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 27 | $1,000 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 45 | $800 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 119 | $600 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 203 | $400 |
| Match 3 (10x Multiplier) | 314 | $100 |
| Match 3 (5x Multiplier) | 554 | $50.00 |
| Match 3 (4x Multiplier) | 1,186 |
What the top prize has been, draw by draw. It climbs while nobody wins and drops to the floor when somebody does — the sawtooth every rollover game draws.
Happenedwhat chance predicts
Completed waits between wins, against the geometric law those waits follow if every draw is an independent chance at the jackpot. The law takes its one parameter from the waits themselves, so this compares shape, not level.
At the $364,000,000 jackpot last advertised, and the 5,490,635 lines the last prize table implies were in play.
A $5.00 line returns about $1.27 — 25% of what it costs. That is the price of the entertainment, and it does not change with which numbers are on the line.
US$5 a line since April 2025. Annuity headline, cash option about half, 37% top federal rate before state tax. At these sales a jackpot is rarely shared.
An average line would break even at a headline of about $4B — and even that is a break-even, not a profit, because a prize that size sells more lines and the extra sharing takes most of it back.
A model, with every parameter on the table — the whole calculation, and its sources → · the same figures for every game we can price →
Open any draw to read it by every tool — the same six readings the latest result gets above, each against what chance predicted at the time.
| $40.00 |
| Match 3 (3x Multiplier) | 2,876 | $30.00 |
| Match 3 (2x Multiplier) | 4,432 | $20.00 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 275 | $100 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 553 | $50.00 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 1,097 | $40.00 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 2,786 | $30.00 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 4,153 | $20.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 2,079 | $70.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 4,129 | $35.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 8,278 | $28.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 20,608 | $21.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 31,231 | $14.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 4,961 | $50.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 9,793 | $25.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 19,505 | $20.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 48,651 | $15.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 73,222 | $10.00 |
| Totals | 241,194 | — |
| Draws waited | Happened | Chance says |
|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 2 | 1.2 |
| 5–9 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 10–14 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 15–19 | 1 | 0.6 |
| 20–24 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 25–29 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 30–34 | 0 | 0.3 |
| 35–39 | 2 | 0.2 |
| 40–44 | 0 | 0.2 |
| 45–49 | 0 | 0.2 |
| 50+ | 0 | 0.6 |
Every number was expected about that many times after 157 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Scored 40 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 20% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 156 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (32, 54) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 7 August 2026 — its closest relative in 156 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (2 October 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 205 — the 73th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →32 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 56% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 59 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 65% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 155 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 40, 55) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 March 2026 — its closest relative in 155 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 24% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (29 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 179 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. Side-by-side numbers: 40–41. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →40 had not appeared for 33 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 52% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 39 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 18% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 154 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (10, 64) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 19 May 2026 — its closest relative in 154 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (25 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 132 — the 15th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →64 had not appeared for 38 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 23% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 33 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 11% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 153 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (57, 58) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 September 2026 — its closest relative in 153 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (22 September 2026): 68 carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 275 — the 99th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. Side-by-side numbers: 57–58, 67–68. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →67 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 56% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 55 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 55% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 152 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (37, 68) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 21 July 2026 — its closest relative in 152 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (18 September 2026): 68 carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 151 — the 27th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →13 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 37% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 47 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 34% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 151 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (4, 56) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 July 2026 — its closest relative in 151 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (15 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 161 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →24 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 28% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 32 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 11% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 150 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (36, 43, 58) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 21 April 2026 — its closest relative in 150 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 23% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 221 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. Side-by-side numbers: 57–58. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →36 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 56% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 68 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 88% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 149 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (53, 62) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 30 June 2026 — its closest relative in 149 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (8 September 2026): 30 carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 181 — the 53th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →33 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 38% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 63 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 76% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 148 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (17, 43, 58) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 6 May 2025 — its closest relative in 148 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 23% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (4 September 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 214 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →58 had not appeared for 35 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 44% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 73 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 96% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 11 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 147 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (34, 59) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 28 July 2026 — its closest relative in 147 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (1 September 2026): 61 carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 186 — the 57th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →6 had not appeared for 50 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 43% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Scored 50 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 41% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 10 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 146 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (51, 63) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 June 2026 — its closest relative in 146 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (28 August 2026): nothing carried over. Chance says 32% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 198 — the 67th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 178. No two numbers side by side. 26% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →61 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 14 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 43% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →