In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 160 draws, 1 from 1–24.
5times drawn · chance expected 7 −0.66σ
21draws waiting · a wait this long: 43% for any number
24.3average wait between appearances · chance says 24.0
52longest completed wait · 38% chance of one at least that long
21 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 5 times in 160 draws against 6.7 expected, −0.66σ. Each draw is independent: after 21 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
21
Number 21, draw by draw
Drawn 5 times in 160 draws · average wait 24.3 draws · longest completed wait 52 · waiting 21 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 23 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 23 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 1/24 tonight whatever it did last week.
Mega Millions number 21 (star deck) — how often, how long a wait, and with whom — LotteryOracle