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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.
Drawn 10 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, −0.40σ. Each draw is independent: after 33 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 10 times in 158 draws · average wait 12.8 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 33 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 35 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 39 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 12 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2025-11-14 | 9 | 4th | 18111257 |
| 2025-10-14 | 14 | 1st | 1222495758 |
| 2025-08-26 | 6 | 2nd | 712304069 |
| 2025-08-05 | 7 | 1st | 1227425965 |
| 2025-07-11 | 18 | 1st | 1223243156 |
| 2025-05-09 | — | 3rd | 910124860 |