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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.
Drawn 11 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, −0.09σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 11 times in 158 draws · average wait 11.8 draws · longest completed wait 23 · waiting 15 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 19 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 34 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 36 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 19 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 19 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 19 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2025-12-26 | 5 | 2nd | 919316364 |
| 2025-12-09 | 5 | 1st | 1932414966 |
| 2025-11-21 | 7 | 3rd | 34193163 |
| 2025-10-28 | 7 | 2nd | 219335361 |
| 2025-10-03 | 13 | 2nd | 1819385457 |
| 2025-08-19 | 14 | 2nd | 1019244968 |
| 2025-07-01 | — | 1st | 1928313954 |