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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.
Drawn 11 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, −0.09σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 11 times in 158 draws · average wait 14.3 draws · longest completed wait 23 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 33 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 34 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 36 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 33 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 36th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 33 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 33 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2025-10-28 | 6 | 3rd | 219335361 |
| 2025-10-07 | 3 | 3rd | 1726334556 |
| 2025-09-26 | 16 | 4th | 421273349 |
| 2025-08-01 | 21 | 4th | 1827293370 |
| 2025-05-20 | 2 | 3rd | 1830335564 |
| 2025-05-13 | 4 | 3rd | 629334768 |
| 2025-04-29 | — | 2nd | 1633405157 |