Mega Millions · every number · star deck

Star 16

In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 159 draws, 1 from 1–24.

11times drawn · chance expected 7 +1.74σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 84% for any number

14.5average wait between appearances · chance says 24.0

31longest completed wait · 96% chance of one at least that long

16 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 11 times in 159 draws against 6.6 expected, +1.74σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 16, draw by draw

Drawn 11 times in 159 draws · average wait 14.5 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest11 · chance 11.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

No shared draws yet.

Never drawn alongside 23 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 23 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-09-25	3	1st	16
2026-09-15	21	1st	16
2026-07-03	16	1st	16
2026-05-08	12	1st	16
2026-03-27	7	1st	16
2026-03-03	15	1st	16
2026-01-09	11	1st	16
2025-12-02	31	1st	16
2025-08-15	28	1st

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 1/24 tonight whatever it did last week.