In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 159 draws, 1 from 1–24.
9times drawn · chance expected 7 +0.94σ
7draws waiting · a wait this long: 77% for any number
18.5average wait between appearances · chance says 24.0
46longest completed wait · 72% chance of one at least that long
1 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 9 times in 159 draws against 6.6 expected, +0.94σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
1
Number 1, draw by draw
Drawn 9 times in 159 draws · average wait 18.5 draws · longest completed wait 46 · waiting 7 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 1 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 23 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 23 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 1 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 1 is drawn with probability 1/24 tonight whatever it did last week.