Number 30

In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.

16times drawn · chance expected 11 +1.46σ

8draws waiting · a wait this long: 60% for any number

9.1average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0

25longest completed wait · 94% chance of one at least that long

30 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 16 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, +1.46σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 30, draw by draw

Drawn 16 times in 158 draws · average wait 9.1 draws · longest completed wait 25 · waiting 8 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 1.7
2nd smallest8 · chance 5.3
3rd smallest6 · chance 5.9
4th smallest0 · chance 2.7
5th smallest1 · chance 0.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

5 33 36 66 12 13

Never drawn alongside 25 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 27 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 30 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-09-11	1	2nd	3 30 33 53 62
2026-09-08	6	2nd	17 30 43 58 66
2026-08-18	2	3rd	5 19 30 38 59
2026-08-11	13	3rd	1 20 30

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.