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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · every number · star deck
In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 159 draws, 1 from 1–24.
Drawn 5 times in 159 draws against 6.6 expected, −0.64σ. Each draw is independent: after 74 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 5 times in 159 draws · average wait 15.0 draws · longest completed wait 22 · waiting 74 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 5 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
No shared draws yet.
Never drawn alongside 23 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 23 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 5 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | 13 | 1st | 5 |
| 2025-12-12 | 10 | 1st | 5 |
| 2025-11-07 | 15 | 1st | 5 |
| 2025-09-16 | 22 | 1st | 5 |
| 2025-07-01 | — | 1st | 5 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 5 is drawn with probability 1/24 tonight whatever it did last week.