Number 38

In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.

14times drawn · chance expected 11 +0.84σ

15draws waiting · a wait this long: 35% for any number

10.8average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0

25longest completed wait · 91% chance of one at least that long

38 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 14 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, +0.84σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 38, draw by draw

Drawn 14 times in 158 draws · average wait 10.8 draws · longest completed wait 25 · waiting 15 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest2 · chance 0.6
2nd smallest1 · chance 3.0
3rd smallest5 · chance 5.3
4th smallest6 · chance 4.0
5th smallest0 · chance 1.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

4 19 37 44 62 11

Never drawn alongside 31 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 31 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 36th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 38 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-08-18	20	4th	5 19 30 38 59
2026-06-09	15	4th	9 30 36 38 40
2026-04-17	9	1st	38 43 44 49 62
2026-03-17	3	4th	4 11 18

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.