Number 40

In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.

18times drawn · chance expected 11 +2.07σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 93% for any number

8.8average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0

33longest completed wait · 81% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 18 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, +2.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 18 times in 158 draws · average wait 8.8 draws · longest completed wait 33 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.6
2nd smallest5 · chance 3.3
3rd smallest5 · chance 6.7
4th smallest6 · chance 5.7
5th smallest2 · chance 1.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

7 16 10 35 55 68

Never drawn alongside 25 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-02	33	3rd	6 37 40 41 55
2026-06-09	8	5th	9 30 36 38 40
2026-05-12	5	4th	17 32 35 40 47
2026-04-24	12	5th	7 16 32

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.