Number 21

In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.

13times drawn · chance expected 11 +0.53σ

19draws waiting · a wait this long: 26% for any number

9.6average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0

26longest completed wait · 87% chance of one at least that long

21 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 13 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, +0.53σ. Each draw is independent: after 19 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 21, draw by draw

Drawn 13 times in 158 draws · average wait 9.6 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 19 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 3.2
2nd smallest11 · chance 5.5
3rd smallest2 · chance 3.4
4th smallest0 · chance 0.8
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

16 27 13 14 17 18

Never drawn alongside 34 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 32 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 21 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-08-04	13	2nd	14 21 51 55 65
2026-06-19	14	3rd	13 16 21 26 50
2026-05-01	5	2nd	16 21 27 41 61
2026-04-14	10	2nd	17 21 24

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.