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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.
Drawn 14 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, +0.84σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 14 times in 158 draws · average wait 11.2 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 68 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 28 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 31 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 68 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 36th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 68 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 68 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2026-07-21 | 31 | 4th | 2537596870 |
| 2026-04-03 | 14 | 5th | 3145626368 |
| 2026-02-13 | 1 | 5th | 3440495968 |
| 2026-02-10 | 10 | 5th | 525303668 |
| 2026-01-06 | 19 | 5th | 939475868 |
| 2025-10-31 | 21 | 5th | 224526668 |
| 2025-08-19 | 25 | 5th | 1019244968 |
| 2025-05-23 | 3 | 5th | 718405568 |
| 2025-05-13 | 3 | 5th | 629334768 |
| 2025-05-02 | — | 5th | 1437404168 |