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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 158 draws, 5 from 1–70.
Drawn 11 times in 158 draws against 11.3 expected, −0.09σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 11 times in 158 draws · average wait 14.8 draws · longest completed wait 27 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 41 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 36 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 36 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 41 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 36th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 41 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 41 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2026-03-27 | 27 | 4th | 1327284162 |
| 2025-12-23 | 4 | 4th | 1537384164 |
| 2025-12-09 | 22 | 3rd | 1932414966 |
| 2025-09-23 | 18 | 3rd | 1324414270 |
| 2025-07-22 | 5 | 2nd | 2241425969 |
| 2025-07-04 | 18 | 4th | 1720244142 |
| 2025-05-02 | — | 4th | 1437404168 |