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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Mega Millions · every number · star deck
In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/24 · since Apr 2025 rules — 159 draws, 1 from 1–24.
Drawn 8 times in 159 draws against 6.6 expected, +0.55σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 8 times in 159 draws · average wait 21.3 draws · longest completed wait 36 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
No shared draws yet.
Never drawn alongside 23 of the other 23 numbers; chance expects about 23 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 24. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 21 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-07-21 | 22 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-05-05 | 12 | 1st | 10 |
| 2026-03-24 | 36 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-11-18 | 9 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-10-17 | 17 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-08-19 | 32 | 1st | 10 |
| 2025-04-29 | — | 1st | 10 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 1/24 tonight whatever it did last week.