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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
US · AZ · ball game
Latest drawTuesday, 13 October 2026
Jackpot$385,000,000
Top prizeNot won — 17 draws unwonnext draw advertised at $403,000,000
Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 14 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC.
5 numbers from 1–56, plus 1 from 1–46. 3,068 draws held here since 1996-09-06 — 159 under the current rules.
Mega Millions changed its number pool then, which started a new era. Only the 159 draws since count towards number statistics — mixing draws from before a rule change would make any frequency meaningless.
Your numbers, read by every tool
Type the numbers you always play. Has the line ever come up? How close has Mega Millions come? What has each number done, what does the line look like, and has the same set turned up anywhere else in the world?
Every tool, for this game
Each one opens with Mega Millions already selected. The line under every title is true of this game’s rules right now — not a promise about its next draw.

In 869 draws every number is expected about 78 times, and a ball favoured by more than 45% over its share would already have shown — see which ones strayed, and how far chance allows.

A number waits 11 draws on average; 5% of the time it waits 34 or more. It is never “due”.

The 5 numbers add up to about 143, give or take 35. Most tickets sit in that bell — and so do most draws.

32.0% of draws contain two numbers side by side. That is the rules talking, not luck.

1,540 possible pairs, each expected together 5.6 times so far — and about 15 will look “special” by chance alone.

All 56 numbers as a constellation of who appeared with whom — indistinguishable from a shuffled sky.

39% of draws repeat a number from the draw before. A whole draw repeating: 9.4% likely by now.

Sorted, the numbers sit about 9.5 apart on average — and every “spread” you can name is exactly as likely as every other.

It takes about 50 draws for every one of the 56 numbers to appear at least once. The last few are the slow ones.

175,711,536 possible tickets. Every one has a face — and a typicality score you can look up.

Seven independent tests of randomness run live against all 869 draws. Any of them can fail; watch whether they do.

The lowest number lands near 10, the highest near 48. Position is a property of sorting, not of the balls.

5/56 rescaled onto the same axes as every other game here. One law, many machines.

Six documented cases of a beaten lottery. Not one involved patterns in past draws.

What the world believes about 7, 8, 13 and 17 — and what every machine says back.

At 30 million tickets, an average line keeps about 13% of a jackpot it wins. Unpopular numbers keep more — and still lose money.

A full wheel of 10 numbers here is 252 tickets. A guarantee is real; a profit is not.

Five folk claims about 5/56 games, each answered with the closed form that kills it — never a tip for the next draw.
Take the record with youRSSJSON feedCSV, every drawDraw nights, in your calendarAPI

This is a without-replacement ball game; the Digit Laboratory is for Pick 3 and Pick 4.
Not for this game
The Chernoff Map reads the straight tier of a digit game, which counts tickets on one exact number; a ball game has no such row.
Not for this game
This game draws once a day, so it has no second draw to compare its first with.
Not for this gameThis draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 October 2013 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 40% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 78 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 868 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (45, 48, 56) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 October 2009 — its closest relative in 868 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 95% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (15 October 2013): nothing carried over. Chance says 39% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (2% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 174 — the 81th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 143. No two numbers side by side. 32% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →5 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 11 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 18% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈11M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 145 winners, 80% fewer than the 723 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5 + Mega Ball | 0 | $385,000,000 |
| Match 5 (10x Multiplier) | 0 | $10,000,000 |
| Match 5 (5x Multiplier) | 0 | $5,000,000 |
| Match 5 (4x Multiplier) | 0 | $4,000,000 |
| Match 5 (3x Multiplier) | 0 | $3,000,000 |
| Match 5 (2x Multiplier) | 0 | $2,000,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 0 | $100,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 0 | $50,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 1 | $40,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 1 | $30,000 |
| Match 4 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 5 | $20,000 |
| Match 4 (10x Multiplier) | 1 | $5,000 |
| Match 4 (5x Multiplier) | 11 | $2,500 |
| Match 4 (4x Multiplier) | 20 | $2,000 |
| Match 4 (3x Multiplier) | 51 | $1,500 |
| Match 4 (2x Multiplier) | 62 | $1,000 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 12 | $2,000 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 27 | $1,000 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 44 | $800 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 133 | $600 |
| Match 3 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 187 | $400 |
| Match 3 (10x Multiplier) | 295 | $100 |
| Match 3 (5x Multiplier) | 590 | $50.00 |
| Match 3 (4x Multiplier) | 1,156 |
What the top prize has been, draw by draw. It climbs while nobody wins and drops to the floor when somebody does — the sawtooth every rollover game draws.
The jackpot has gone 5 draws without a winner. The typical wait here is 6.9 draws.
Happenedwhat chance predicts
Completed waits between wins, against the geometric law those waits follow if every draw is an independent chance at the jackpot. The law takes its one parameter from the waits themselves, so this compares shape, not level.
At the $385,000,000 jackpot last advertised, and the 11,073,733 lines the last prize table implies were in play.
A $5.00 line returns about $1.09 — 22% of what it costs. That is the price of the entertainment, and it does not change with which numbers are on the line.
US$5 a line since April 2025. Annuity headline, cash option about half, 37% top federal rate before state tax. At these sales a winning line expects about 0.06 co-winners, leaving 97% of the prize.
An average line would break even at a headline of about $2.9B — and even that is a break-even, not a profit, because a prize that size sells more lines and the extra sharing takes most of it back.
A model, with every parameter on the table — the whole calculation, and its sources → · the same figures for every game we can price →
| $40.00 |
| Match 3 (3x Multiplier) | 2,867 | $30.00 |
| Match 3 (2x Multiplier) | 4,335 | $20.00 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 242 | $100 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 533 | $50.00 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 995 | $40.00 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 2,520 | $30.00 |
| Match 2 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 3,738 | $20.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 2,067 | $70.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 3,906 | $35.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 7,879 | $28.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 20,099 | $21.00 |
| Match 1 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 29,720 | $14.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (10x Multiplier) | 4,566 | $50.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (5x Multiplier) | 9,293 | $25.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (4x Multiplier) | 18,348 | $20.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (3x Multiplier) | 46,365 | $15.00 |
| Match 0 plus Mega Ball (2x Multiplier) | 69,471 | $10.00 |
| Totals | 229,540 | — |
These waits do not fall away from zero the way the law does — they pile up in the middle. That is what happens when the chance of a win is not the same on every draw of a run: few tickets are sold when the prize is small, and so many when it is enormous that a win becomes close to certain. The wait is more predictable than a constant chance allows, and less predictable than it feels.
| Draws waited | Happened | Chance says |
|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 3 | 11.1 |
| 2–3 | 13 | 8.5 |
| 4–5 | 7 | 6.5 |
| 6–7 | 6 | 4.9 |
| 8–9 | 6 | 3.8 |
| 10–11 | 4 | 2.9 |
| 12–13 | 1 | 2.2 |
| 14–15 | 4 | 1.7 |
| 16–17 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 18–19 | 3 | 1.0 |
| 20+ | 0 | 3.2 |