VinciCasa · every number
4
Number 4 In VinciCasa under the 5/40 · since Sep 2024 rules — 735 draws, 5 from 1–40.
88 times drawn · chance expected 92 −0.43σ
2 draws waiting · a wait this long: 88% for any number
8.4 average wait between appearances · chance says 8.0
31 longest completed wait · 80% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains Drawn 88 times in 735 draws against 91.9 expected, −0.43σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4 Number 4, draw by draw Drawn 88 times in 735 draws · average wait 8.4 draws · longest completed wait 31 · waiting 2 draws now
25 draws: 2024-09-29 to 2024-10-24 9 draws: 2024-10-24 to 2024-11-02 3 draws: 2024-11-02 to 2024-11-05 2 draws: 2024-11-05 to 2024-11-07 3 draws: 2024-11-07 to 2024-11-10 5 draws: 2024-11-10 to 2024-11-15 1 draws: 2024-11-15 to 2024-11-16 13 draws: 2024-11-16 to 2024-11-29 3 draws: 2024-11-29 to 2024-12-02 4 draws: 2024-12-02 to 2024-12-06 6 draws: 2024-12-06 to 2024-12-12 10 draws: 2024-12-12 to 2024-12-22 5 draws: 2024-12-22 to 2024-12-27 9 draws: 2024-12-27 to 2025-01-05 4 draws: 2025-01-05 to 2025-01-09 20 draws: 2025-01-09 to 2025-01-29 1 draws: 2025-01-29 to 2025-01-30 12 draws: 2025-01-30 to 2025-02-11 5 draws: 2025-02-11 to 2025-02-16 6 draws: 2025-02-16 to 2025-02-22 16 draws: 2025-02-22 to 2025-03-10 5 draws: 2025-03-10 to 2025-03-15 3 draws: 2025-03-15 to 2025-03-18 4 draws: 2025-03-18 to 2025-03-22 6 draws: 2025-03-22 to 2025-03-28 8 draws: 2025-03-28 to 2025-04-05 14 draws: 2025-04-05 to 2025-04-19 4 draws: 2025-04-19 to 2025-04-23 6 draws: 2025-04-23 to 2025-04-29 23 draws: 2025-04-29 to 2025-05-22 16 draws: 2025-05-22 to 2025-06-07 2 draws: 2025-06-07 to 2025-06-09 3 draws: 2025-06-09 to 2025-06-12 7 draws: 2025-06-12 to 2025-06-19 15 draws: 2025-06-19 to 2025-07-04 1 draws: 2025-07-04 to 2025-07-05 27 draws: 2025-07-05 to 2025-08-01 3 draws: 2025-08-01 to 2025-08-04 2 draws: 2025-08-04 to 2025-08-06 3 draws: 2025-08-06 to 2025-08-09 15 draws: 2025-08-09 to 2025-08-24 3 draws: 2025-08-24 to 2025-08-27 4 draws: 2025-08-27 to 2025-08-31 12 draws: 2025-08-31 to 2025-09-12 8 draws: 2025-09-12 to 2025-09-20 3 draws: 2025-09-20 to 2025-09-23 4 draws: 2025-09-23 to 2025-09-27 13 draws: 2025-09-27 to 2025-10-10 13 draws: 2025-10-10 to 2025-10-25 2 draws: 2025-10-25 to 2025-10-27 1 draws: 2025-10-27 to 2025-10-28 7 draws: 2025-10-28 to 2025-11-04 7 draws: 2025-11-04 to 2025-11-20 1 draws: 2025-11-20 to 2025-11-21 1 draws: 2025-11-21 to 2025-11-22 5 draws: 2025-11-22 to 2025-11-27 2 draws: 2025-11-27 to 2025-11-29 17 draws: 2025-11-29 to 2025-12-16 31 draws: 2025-12-16 to 2026-01-17 5 draws: 2026-01-17 to 2026-01-22 13 draws: 2026-01-22 to 2026-02-04 15 draws: 2026-02-04 to 2026-02-19 21 draws: 2026-02-19 to 2026-03-12 8 draws: 2026-03-12 to 2026-03-20 4 draws: 2026-03-20 to 2026-03-24 12 draws: 2026-03-24 to 2026-04-05 15 draws: 2026-04-05 to 2026-04-20 28 draws: 2026-04-20 to 2026-05-18 11 draws: 2026-05-18 to 2026-05-29 1 draws: 2026-05-29 to 2026-05-30 1 draws: 2026-05-30 to 2026-05-31 7 draws: 2026-05-31 to 2026-06-07 6 draws: 2026-06-07 to 2026-06-13 1 draws: 2026-06-13 to 2026-06-14 3 draws: 2026-06-14 to 2026-06-17 7 draws: 2026-06-17 to 2026-06-24 5 draws: 2026-06-24 to 2026-06-29 25 draws: 2026-06-29 to 2026-07-25 4 draws: 2026-07-25 to 2026-07-29 7 draws: 2026-07-29 to 2026-08-05 3 draws: 2026-08-05 to 2026-08-08 3 draws: 2026-08-08 to 2026-08-11 5 draws: 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-16 11 draws: 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-27 1 draws: 2026-08-27 to 2026-08-28 20 draws: 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-17 23 draws: 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-10 Still waiting — at least 2 draws since 2026-10-10 2024-09-29 2024-10-24 2024-11-02 2024-11-05 2024-11-07 2024-11-10 2024-11-15 2024-11-16 2024-11-29 2024-12-02 2024-12-06 2024-12-12 2024-12-22 2024-12-27 2025-01-05 2025-01-09 2025-01-29 2025-01-30 2025-02-11 2025-02-16 2025-02-22 2025-03-10 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 2025-03-22 2025-03-28 2025-04-05 2025-04-19 2025-04-23 2025-04-29 2025-05-22 2025-06-07 2025-06-09 2025-06-12 2025-06-19 2025-07-04 2025-07-05 2025-08-01 2025-08-04 2025-08-06 2025-08-09 2025-08-24 2025-08-27 2025-08-31 2025-09-12 2025-09-20 2025-09-23 2025-09-27 2025-10-10 2025-10-25 2025-10-27 2025-10-28 2025-11-04 2025-11-20 2025-11-21 2025-11-22 2025-11-27 2025-11-29 2025-12-16 2026-01-17 2026-01-22 2026-02-04 2026-02-19 2026-03-12 2026-03-20 2026-03-24 2026-04-05 2026-04-20 2026-05-18 2026-05-29 2026-05-30 2026-05-31 2026-06-07 2026-06-13 2026-06-14 2026-06-17 2026-06-24 2026-06-29 2026-07-25 2026-07-29 2026-08-05 2026-08-08 2026-08-11 2026-08-16 2026-08-27 2026-08-28 2026-09-17 2026-10-10 2024-09-25 2026-10-12
1 draws: 10 times 2 draws: 5 times 3 draws: 12 times 4 draws: 8 times 5 draws: 8 times 6 draws: 5 times 7 draws: 6 times 8 draws: 3 times 9 draws: 2 times 10 draws: 1 time 11 draws: 2 times 12 draws: 3 times 13 draws: 4 times 14 draws: 1 time 15 draws: 4 times 16 draws: 2 times 17 draws: 1 time 18 draws: 0 times 19 draws: 0 times 20 draws: 2 times 21 draws: 1 time 22 draws: 0 times 23 draws: 2 times 24 draws: 0 times 25 draws: 2 times 26 draws: 0 times 27 draws: 1 time 28 draws: 1 time 29 draws: 0 times 30 draws: 0 times 31 draws: 1 time 32 draws: 0 times its own waits draws between appearances Where it lands in a sorted draw Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
1st smallest 66 · chance 63.0 2nd smallest 22 · chance 22.9 3rd smallest 0 · chance 2.0 4th smallest 0 · chance 0.0 5th smallest 0 · chance 0.0 Every position’s lane →
The company it keeps Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 9.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22 Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10 The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →
Every draw it appeared in ← number 3 Every number number 5 → What this cannot tell you Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/40 tonight whatever it did last week.