Number 15

In VinciCasa under the 5/40 · since Sep 2024 rules — 735 draws, 5 from 1–40.

85times drawn · chance expected 92 −0.77σ

8draws waiting · a wait this long: 39% for any number

8.5average wait between appearances · chance says 8.0

28longest completed wait · 90% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 85 times in 735 draws against 91.9 expected, −0.77σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 85 times in 735 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 8 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest16 · chance 13.1
2nd smallest30 · chance 33.3
3rd smallest23 · chance 28.2
4th smallest13 · chance 9.4
5th smallest3 · chance 1.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 8.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

38 12 19 5 36 4

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-04	1	2nd	12 15 27 35 37
2026-10-03	4	2nd	10 15 18 22 31
2026-09-29	1	2nd	8 15 28 29 39
2026-09-28	18	1st	15 24 28 30

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/40 tonight whatever it did last week.

2026-04-16	7	2nd	1 15 22 36 37
2026-04-09	4	2nd	7 15 16 28 39
2026-04-05	6	4th	4 7 12 15 32
2026-03-30	3	3rd	3 11 15 31 38
2026-03-27	7	4th	2 11 14 15 16
2026-03-20	19	4th	1 4 12 15 18
2026-03-01	3	3rd	5 13 15 20 29
2026-02-26	9	2nd	9 15 16 24 28
2026-02-17	2	2nd	12 15 21 36 40
2026-02-15	8	3rd	1 5 15 23 33
2026-02-07	7	2nd	8 15 18 26 33
2026-01-31	2	4th	5 6 9 15 28
2026-01-29	10	3rd	3 7 15 28 36
2026-01-19	3	3rd	8 11 15 20 36
2026-01-16	9	1st	15 17 18 20 31
2026-01-07	20	1st	15 18 25 36 38
2025-12-17	10	2nd	5 15 25 29 40
2025-12-07	1	3rd	5 12 15 25 35
2025-12-06	13	2nd	13 15 21 29 37
2025-11-23	14	1st	15 21 22 23 40
2025-10-31	6	2nd	12 15 32 35 38
2025-10-25	5	3rd	4 11 15 16 32
2025-10-19	5	1st	15 19 24 26 32
2025-10-14	23	3rd	10 11 15 16 30
2025-09-20	4	4th	4 7 13 15 36
2025-09-16	18	1st	15 18 20 22 39
2025-08-29	4	3rd	8 10 15 31 38
2025-08-25	2	4th	5 8 13 15 27
2025-08-23	13	2nd	8 15 29 34 38
2025-08-10	2	3rd	3 14 15 20 23
2025-08-08	7	1st	15 20 30 34 40
2025-08-01	15	2nd	4 15 17 23 29
2025-07-17	9	1st	15 17 19 21 26
2025-07-08	3	1st	15 17 25 27 38
2025-07-05	24	5th	3 4 6 7 15
2025-06-11	3	3rd	7 10 15 25 38
2025-06-08	2	1st	15 22 24 38 39
2025-06-06	4	3rd	5 14 15 33 36
2025-06-02	1	3rd	13 14 15 36 38
2025-06-01	25	2nd	12 15 19 20 36
2025-05-07	9	4th	2 8 11 15 19
2025-04-28	14	2nd	13 15 34 35 38
2025-04-14	6	1st	15 16 23 24 38
2025-04-08	5	2nd	14 15 24 34 38
2025-04-03	1	1st	15 19 21 27 32
2025-04-02	2	4th	3 9 10 15 31
2025-03-31	7	2nd	11 15 27 35 36
2025-03-24	2	1st	15 24 33 36 38
2025-03-22	13	5th	4 5 8 14 15
2025-03-09	28	2nd	7 15 29 33 34
2025-02-09	10	5th	1 2 10 12 15
2025-01-30	26	4th	1 4 12 15 27
2025-01-04	15	2nd	5 15 26 31 38
2024-12-20	18	2nd	12 15 19 29 35
2024-12-02	2	3rd	4 12 15 19 34
2024-11-30	2	3rd	2 6 15 19 23
2024-11-28	16	3rd	3 10 15 34 39
2024-11-12	2	2nd	7 15 19 22 29
2024-11-10	4	4th	4 11 13 15 37
2024-11-06	27	2nd	9 15 19 26 39
2024-10-10	—	1st	15 17 25 30 33