Number 10

In VinciCasa under the 5/40 · since Sep 2024 rules — 735 draws, 5 from 1–40.

105times drawn · chance expected 92 +1.46σ

9draws waiting · a wait this long: 34% for any number

6.9average wait between appearances · chance says 8.0

40longest completed wait · 43% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 105 times in 735 draws against 91.9 expected, +1.46σ. Each draw is independent: after 9 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 105 times in 735 draws · average wait 6.9 draws · longest completed wait 40 · waiting 9 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest40 · chance 35.0
2nd smallest43 · chance 46.6
3rd smallest17 · chance 20.0
4th smallest4 · chance 3.2
5th smallest1 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 10.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

7 8 36 26 38 3

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 39 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 40. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-03	3	1st	10 15 18 22 31
2026-09-30	4	2nd	8 10 27 32 39
2026-09-26	1	2nd	6 10 24 36 38
2026-09-25	7	1st	10 14 16 27

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/40 tonight whatever it did last week.

2026-05-13	1	1st	10 19 25 29 32
2026-05-12	8	1st	10 14 20 28 38
2026-05-04	13	1st	10 19 22 27 40
2026-04-21	7	2nd	7 10 22 28 32
2026-04-14	4	1st	10 12 17 29 33
2026-04-10	2	3rd	2 3 10 13 21
2026-04-08	5	2nd	2 10 24 31 38
2026-04-03	6	1st	10 12 16 20 34
2026-03-28	7	1st	10 23 33 38 39
2026-03-21	12	2nd	3 10 24 27 32
2026-03-09	26	1st	10 20 22 28 30
2026-02-11	8	1st	10 17 21 22 30
2026-02-03	1	1st	10 14 29 35 36
2026-02-02	5	2nd	8 10 18 30 37
2026-01-28	2	2nd	5 10 13 18 31
2026-01-26	5	3rd	3 9 10 16 21
2026-01-21	8	4th	5 6 7 10 40
2026-01-13	1	2nd	6 10 25 29 36
2026-01-12	9	2nd	1 10 14 19 33
2026-01-03	2	1st	10 11 18 23 30
2026-01-01	5	2nd	8 10 13 24 36
2025-12-27	3	1st	10 16 17 29 31
2025-12-24	40	2nd	6 10 19 24 31
2025-11-04	11	3rd	4 6 10 14 23
2025-10-24	3	4th	5 8 9 10 21
2025-10-21	6	1st	10 21 28 32 37
2025-10-14	10	1st	10 11 15 16 30
2025-10-03	18	2nd	6 10 11 13 24
2025-09-15	1	3rd	3 8 10 32 34
2025-09-14	8	2nd	3 10 14 32 39
2025-09-06	1	4th	2 3 7 10 40
2025-09-05	4	2nd	2 10 24 25 39
2025-09-01	3	2nd	7 10 31 35 36
2025-08-29	10	2nd	8 10 15 31 38
2025-08-19	1	3rd	1 9 10 17 27
2025-08-18	22	2nd	2 10 16 31 37
2025-07-27	3	1st	10 14 25 27 30
2025-07-24	25	1st	10 12 14 26 40
2025-06-29	10	3rd	1 2 10 19 37
2025-06-19	3	2nd	4 10 11 19 37
2025-06-16	5	2nd	1 10 26 31 34
2025-06-11	12	2nd	7 10 15 25 38
2025-05-30	1	2nd	2 10 22 26 37
2025-05-29	4	2nd	3 10 29 31 38
2025-05-25	4	3rd	7 9 10 19 22
2025-05-21	22	1st	10 14 26 37 39
2025-04-29	2	4th	3 4 8 10 33
2025-04-27	6	1st	10 13 19 26 33
2025-04-21	8	1st	10 19 33 34 40
2025-04-13	2	1st	10 11 17 34 36
2025-04-11	9	2nd	1 10 12 13 25
2025-04-02	3	3rd	3 9 10 15 31
2025-03-30	22	1st	10 30 33 37 40
2025-03-08	2	1st	10 18 20 27 37
2025-03-06	4	1st	10 11 27 32 38
2025-03-02	15	5th	2 5 7 8 10
2025-02-15	6	2nd	8 10 12 16 18
2025-02-09	1	3rd	1 2 10 12 15
2025-02-08	2	2nd	6 10 13 19 34
2025-02-06	1	1st	10 25 28 29 35
2025-02-05	1	1st	10 18 19 27 30
2025-02-04	10	3rd	6 8 10 16 34
2025-01-25	4	2nd	9 10 14 23 24
2025-01-21	4	2nd	3 10 24 30 33
2025-01-17	6	2nd	9 10 22 28 34
2025-01-11	21	2nd	1 10 27 33 36
2024-12-21	11	2nd	8 10 23 25 35
2024-12-10	5	1st	10 20 25 29 33
2024-12-05	1	2nd	7 10 24 26 36
2024-12-04	5	3rd	5 7 10 38 40
2024-11-29	1	3rd	4 8 10 11 33
2024-11-28	6	2nd	3 10 15 34 39
2024-11-22	21	2nd	8 10 12 26 36
2024-11-01	2	1st	10 26 32 35 36
2024-10-30	1	1st	10 12 30 36 38
2024-10-29	1	2nd	8 10 17 21 28
2024-10-28	1	3rd	7 9 10 11 22
2024-10-27	2	2nd	5 10 18 30 32
2024-10-25	11	2nd	7 10 12 19 31
2024-10-14	10	1st	10 12 26 36 37
2024-10-04	—	2nd	7 10 23 26 33