In El Gordo de la Primitiva under the 5/54 + 1/9 · since Jan 2010 rules — 870 draws, 1 from 0–9.
84times drawn · chance expected 87 −0.34σ
0draws waiting — it came up last time
10.4average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
57longest completed wait · 20% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 84 times in 870 draws against 87.0 expected, −0.34σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 84 times in 870 draws · average wait 10.4 draws · longest completed wait 57 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 9 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 1/10 tonight whatever it did last week.