In Lottario Early Bird under the 4/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 4 from 1–45.
19times drawn · chance expected 10 +3.22σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 91% for any number
5.6average wait between appearances · chance says 11.3
11longest completed wait · >99% chance of one at least that long
40 looks unusual on its own — and unremarkable among 45 numbers
Drawn 19 times in 107 draws against 9.5 expected, +3.22σ. Testing all 45 numbers at once means about 0.5 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 2.2e-4 and this does not pass it.
40
Number 40, draw by draw
Drawn 19 times in 107 draws · average wait 5.6 draws · longest completed wait 11 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 4/45 tonight whatever it did last week.