Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Loading…
Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Lottario Early Bird · every number
In Lottario Early Bird under the 4/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 4 from 1–45.
Drawn 2 times in 107 draws against 9.5 expected, −2.55σ. Testing all 45 numbers at once means about 0.5 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 2.2e-4 and this does not pass it.
Drawn 2 times in 107 draws · average wait 46.0 draws · longest completed wait 46 · waiting 57 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Too few completed waits to plot a distribution for this number alone.
Sort a draw and 45 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 39 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 38 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 45 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 45 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-06 | 46 | 4th | 16313245 |
| 2024-10-19 | — | 4th | 31374045 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 45 is drawn with probability 4/45 tonight whatever it did last week.