Number 10

In Lottario Early Bird under the 4/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 4 from 1–45.

11times drawn · chance expected 10 +0.51σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

7.2average wait between appearances · chance says 11.3

20longest completed wait · 85% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 11 times in 107 draws against 9.5 expected, +0.51σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 11 times in 107 draws · average wait 7.2 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest4 · chance 5.4
2nd smallest5 · chance 4.4
3rd smallest2 · chance 1.0
4th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

8 32 40 44 2 3

Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 21 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-03	2	2nd	5 10 16 23
2026-09-19	2	2nd	2 10 32 38
2026-09-05	7	2nd	9 10 33 40
2026-07-18	20	3rd	6 8 10 21

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 4/45 tonight whatever it did last week.