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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Lottario Early Bird · every number
In Lottario Early Bird under the 4/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 4 from 1–45.
Drawn 11 times in 107 draws against 9.5 expected, +0.51σ. Each draw is independent: after 11 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 11 times in 107 draws · average wait 9.5 draws · longest completed wait 34 · waiting 11 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 17 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 21 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 21 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 17 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 17 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 2 | 2nd | 16173439 |
| 2026-07-11 | 3 | 1st | 17233038 |
| 2026-06-20 | 6 | 3rd | 271740 |
| 2026-05-09 | 7 | 1st | 17313741 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 17 is drawn with probability 4/45 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 34 |
| 3rd |
| 11151723 |
| 2025-07-26 | 23 | 1st | 17314042 |
| 2025-02-15 | 3 | 1st | 17232739 |
| 2025-01-25 | 3 | 1st | 17202636 |
| 2025-01-04 | 10 | 1st | 17214044 |
| 2024-10-26 | 4 | 2nd | 16173038 |
| 2024-09-28 | — | 2nd | 6172231 |