Number 15

In Lottario Early Bird under the 4/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 4 from 1–45.

9times drawn · chance expected 10 −0.17σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 91% for any number

10.4average wait between appearances · chance says 11.3

24longest completed wait · 63% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 9 times in 107 draws against 9.5 expected, −0.17σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 9 times in 107 draws · average wait 10.4 draws · longest completed wait 24 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest2 · chance 2.8
2nd smallest5 · chance 4.1
3rd smallest2 · chance 1.9
4th smallest0 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

23 40 2 4 9 18

Never drawn alongside 27 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-09-26	24	1st	15 25 39 40
2026-04-11	3	2nd	9 15 23 40
2026-03-21	16	2nd	11 15 17 23
2025-11-29	9	2nd	9 15 25 36

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 4/45 tonight whatever it did last week.