Number 21

In Lottario Early Bird under the 4/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 4 from 1–45.

9times drawn · chance expected 10 −0.17σ

12draws waiting · a wait this long: 36% for any number

10.3average wait between appearances · chance says 11.3

30longest completed wait · 43% chance of one at least that long

21 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 9 times in 107 draws against 9.5 expected, −0.17σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 21, draw by draw

Drawn 9 times in 107 draws · average wait 10.3 draws · longest completed wait 30 · waiting 12 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 1.4
2nd smallest7 · chance 3.8
3rd smallest0 · chance 3.1
4th smallest2 · chance 0.8

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

23 33 8 20 3 6

Never drawn alongside 23 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 21 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-07-18	12	4th	6 8 10 21
2026-04-25	11	2nd	20 21 33 36
2026-02-07	13	2nd	9 21 23 27
2025-11-08	30	4th	3 12 14 21

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 4/45 tonight whatever it did last week.