Number 4

In Set for Life under the 5/47 + 1/10 · since Mar 2019 rules — 791 draws, 5 from 1–47.

91times drawn · chance expected 84 +0.79σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

8.8average wait between appearances · chance says 9.4

37longest completed wait · 79% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 91 times in 791 draws against 84.1 expected, +0.79σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 91 times in 791 draws · average wait 8.8 draws · longest completed wait 37 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest65 · chance 68.8
2nd smallest23 · chance 20.6
3rd smallest3 · chance 1.5
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 7.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

34 3 7 17 45 5

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 46 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 47. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-12	10	1st	4 7 19 26 45
2026-09-07	2	1st	4 18 22 24 42
2026-08-31	5	1st	4 17 26 38 39
2026-08-13	2	1st	4 5 10 12

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/47 tonight whatever it did last week.

2024-12-19	28	1st	4 7 20 38 41
2024-09-12	1	2nd	1 4 23 38 39
2024-09-09	3	1st	4 6 32 35 45
2024-08-29	17	1st	4 8 21 25 43
2024-07-01	10	1st	4 6 8 19 34
2024-05-27	3	1st	4 7 13 28 34
2024-05-16	16	1st	4 12 16 21 26
2024-03-21	2	2nd	3 4 11 14 18
2024-03-14	4	1st	4 11 22 25 34
2024-02-29	7	1st	4 6 28 29 45
2024-02-05	6	2nd	3 4 8 10 28
2024-01-15	7	1st	4 14 21 35 36
2023-12-21	5	1st	4 8 17 18 21
2023-12-04	24	1st	4 11 16 46 47
2023-09-11	10	1st	4 5 14 24 35
2023-08-07	20	2nd	1 4 9 40 46
2023-05-29	10	1st	4 11 14 41 45
2023-04-24	6	1st	4 8 10 38 43
2023-04-03	1	2nd	3 4 6 36 39
2023-03-30	13	1st	4 24 25 30 33
2023-02-13	1	1st	4 6 9 17 18
2023-02-09	5	1st	4 16 17 21 34
2023-01-23	6	1st	4 10 13 21 30
2023-01-02	15	2nd	3 4 7 15 26
2022-11-10	10	1st	4 27 29 31 40
2022-10-06	23	2nd	3 4 24 40 45
2022-07-18	1	2nd	2 4 9 34 47
2022-07-14	35	1st	4 5 14 16 38
2022-03-14	4	1st	4 5 10 40 44
2022-02-28	5	1st	4 15 24 31 33
2022-02-10	3	1st	4 9 31 32 42
2022-01-31	4	2nd	3 4 7 29 34
2022-01-17	9	1st	4 5 11 27 35
2021-12-16	12	1st	4 25 28 39 40
2021-11-04	4	1st	4 8 11 26 34
2021-10-21	1	3rd	2 3 4 12 29
2021-10-18	7	1st	4 7 22 34 44
2021-09-23	36	1st	4 27 38 43 45
2021-05-20	22	1st	4 5 18 19 27
2021-03-04	3	1st	4 8 18 28 44
2021-02-22	4	1st	4 7 16 20 42
2021-02-08	1	1st	4 10 14 17 30
2021-02-04	7	1st	4 5 7 26 39
2021-01-11	4	1st	4 20 32 34 44
2020-12-28	37	2nd	2 4 22 37 45
2020-08-20	11	1st	4 5 17 27 36
2020-07-13	8	1st	4 10 18 19 45
2020-06-15	4	1st	4 15 21 23 42
2020-06-01	3	1st	4 30 32 34 38
2020-05-21	15	2nd	3 4 19 45 46
2020-03-30	1	3rd	2 3 4 36 41
2020-03-26	3	1st	4 7 11 24 29
2020-03-16	2	2nd	2 4 15 20 38
2020-03-09	11	1st	4 8 25 37 38
2020-01-30	3	1st	4 10 33 36 40
2020-01-20	13	1st	4 10 16 30 36
2019-12-05	12	1st	4 7 11 22 47
2019-10-24	7	1st	4 12 17 28 36
2019-09-30	12	1st	4 6 20 29 34
2019-08-19	1	2nd	3 4 5 7 34
2019-08-15	10	1st	4 8 15 17 32
2019-07-11	5	1st	4 12 21 42 43
2019-06-24	7	2nd	2 4 17 30 34
2019-05-30	3	1st	4 20 23 25 27
2019-05-20	17	1st	4 9 15 29 44
2019-03-21	1	3rd	2 3 4 25 46
2019-03-18	—	1st	4 6 17 20 35