Number 40

In Set for Life under the 5/47 + 1/10 · since Mar 2019 rules — 791 draws, 5 from 1–47.

88times drawn · chance expected 84 +0.44σ

6draws waiting · a wait this long: 57% for any number

8.7average wait between appearances · chance says 9.4

43longest completed wait · 54% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 88 times in 791 draws against 84.1 expected, +0.44σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 88 times in 791 draws · average wait 8.7 draws · longest completed wait 43 · waiting 6 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest1 · chance 0.7
3rd smallest10 · chance 8.4
4th smallest35 · chance 34.5
5th smallest42 · chance 44.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 7.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

43 39 42 5 9 10

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 46 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 47. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-09-21	19	4th	24 28 37 40 42
2026-07-16	1	5th	5 13 24 33 40
2026-07-13	1	3rd	1 19 40 43 46
2026-07-09	43	3rd	7 35 40 46

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/47 tonight whatever it did last week.

2023-09-21	8	5th	7 17 23 24 40
2023-08-24	5	5th	5 6 29 30 40
2023-08-07	5	4th	1 4 9 40 46
2023-07-20	2	4th	28 31 37 40 47
2023-07-13	34	5th	7 9 11 39 40
2023-03-16	4	5th	1 7 25 31 40
2023-03-02	2	4th	9 26 38 40 43
2023-02-23	10	5th	1 6 29 30 40
2023-01-19	1	3rd	15 30 40 42 47
2023-01-16	3	5th	10 23 32 36 40
2023-01-05	2	4th	3 29 36 40 42
2022-12-29	2	4th	16 27 39 40 42
2022-12-22	6	4th	14 27 28 40 43
2022-12-01	2	3rd	12 34 40 42 47
2022-11-24	3	5th	1 10 14 32 40
2022-11-14	1	5th	9 20 21 37 40
2022-11-10	10	5th	4 27 29 31 40
2022-10-06	4	4th	3 4 24 40 45
2022-09-22	10	5th	8 11 36 39 40
2022-08-18	1	5th	8 17 20 35 40
2022-08-15	1	5th	8 10 18 21 40
2022-08-11	15	5th	1 12 13 26 40
2022-06-20	16	3rd	1 3 40 44 47
2022-04-25	12	5th	8 15 31 37 40
2022-03-14	5	4th	4 5 10 40 44
2022-02-24	2	5th	5 6 25 31 40
2022-02-17	6	4th	5 15 24 40 43
2022-01-27	2	4th	15 19 26 40 42
2022-01-20	4	5th	7 22 24 25 40
2022-01-06	2	4th	9 27 34 40 45
2021-12-30	3	4th	20 27 38 40 41
2021-12-20	1	3rd	24 27 40 46 47
2021-12-16	5	5th	4 25 28 39 40
2021-11-29	14	5th	2 14 18 34 40
2021-10-11	4	4th	9 16 21 40 44
2021-09-27	9	4th	26 30 32 40 44
2021-08-26	8	5th	17 19 25 30 40
2021-07-29	2	4th	8 32 37 40 45
2021-07-22	5	4th	5 14 37 40 43
2021-07-05	9	4th	17 22 36 40 41
2021-06-03	3	4th	8 26 39 40 45
2021-05-24	3	5th	8 18 20 29 40
2021-05-13	2	3rd	12 30 40 42 47
2021-05-06	2	4th	2 7 25 40 46
2021-04-29	28	5th	13 14 21 23 40
2021-01-21	9	5th	24 27 28 35 40
2020-12-21	18	4th	10 13 14 40 43
2020-10-19	12	4th	21 31 32 40 42
2020-09-07	13	4th	26 32 35 40 44
2020-07-23	42	5th	5 21 33 36 40
2020-02-27	1	5th	2 19 29 31 40
2020-02-24	6	5th	1 19 22 35 40
2020-02-03	1	3rd	9 14 40 42 43
2020-01-30	21	5th	4 10 33 36 40
2019-11-18	2	5th	6 18 23 33 40
2019-11-11	20	4th	23 32 38 40 47
2019-09-02	3	5th	14 20 24 36 40
2019-08-22	4	3rd	5 12 40 43 44
2019-08-08	1	5th	13 22 26 39 40
2019-08-05	1	5th	9 13 18 39 40
2019-08-01	8	5th	15 16 21 37 40
2019-07-04	4	4th	19 20 35 40 42
2019-06-20	3	4th	6 10 27 40 45
2019-06-10	—	4th	23 29 33 40 43