In Set for Life under the 5/47 + 1/10 · since Mar 2019 rules — 792 draws, 1 from 1–10.
71times drawn · chance expected 79 −0.97σ
3draws waiting · a wait this long: 81% for any number
11.0average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
48longest completed wait · 39% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 71 times in 792 draws against 79.2 expected, −0.97σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 71 times in 792 draws · average wait 11.0 draws · longest completed wait 48 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 9 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 1/10 tonight whatever it did last week.
Set for Life number 4 (star deck) — how often, how long a wait, and with whom — LotteryOracle