Number 15

In Set for Life under the 5/47 + 1/10 · since Mar 2019 rules — 791 draws, 5 from 1–47.

93times drawn · chance expected 84 +1.02σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

8.5average wait between appearances · chance says 9.4

43longest completed wait · 56% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 93 times in 791 draws against 84.1 expected, +1.02σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 93 times in 791 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 43 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest24 · chance 20.5
2nd smallest38 · chance 39.6
3rd smallest26 · chance 25.7
4th smallest5 · chance 6.6
5th smallest0 · chance 0.6

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 8.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

33 26 44 21 23 43

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 46 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 47. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-10-08	1	1st	15 19 20 26 39
2026-10-05	2	3rd	7 9 15 35 47
2026-09-28	3	4th	1 10 11 15 47
2026-09-17	15	3rd	5 9 15 33

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/47 tonight whatever it did last week.

2024-10-21	2	2nd	8 15 19 32 38
2024-10-14	8	2nd	3 15 28 32 34
2024-09-16	7	3rd	12 13 15 17 30
2024-08-22	12	1st	15 30 32 33 39
2024-07-11	4	3rd	7 11 15 21 32
2024-06-27	7	2nd	8 15 27 32 33
2024-06-03	8	3rd	2 11 15 19 38
2024-05-06	18	2nd	11 15 26 33 44
2024-03-04	13	2nd	7 15 25 30 38
2024-01-18	2	2nd	9 15 22 40 44
2024-01-11	5	1st	15 16 23 35 42
2023-12-25	14	2nd	2 15 21 41 47
2023-11-06	10	4th	2 5 11 15 27
2023-10-02	2	4th	1 7 14 15 26
2023-09-25	10	4th	6 12 13 15 41
2023-08-21	2	2nd	11 15 21 33 43
2023-08-14	29	2nd	8 15 17 31 41
2023-05-04	5	2nd	13 15 16 35 37
2023-04-17	10	2nd	5 15 23 26 44
2023-03-13	12	2nd	3 15 17 18 33
2023-01-30	3	1st	15 16 19 22 25
2023-01-19	5	1st	15 30 40 42 47
2023-01-02	19	4th	3 4 7 15 26
2022-10-27	1	1st	15 23 25 35 36
2022-10-24	3	2nd	8 15 20 35 38
2022-10-13	19	2nd	6 15 34 42 46
2022-08-08	1	2nd	10 15 22 23 41
2022-08-04	2	2nd	5 15 43 44 47
2022-07-28	22	3rd	3 6 15 26 33
2022-05-12	5	3rd	3 13 15 19 36
2022-04-25	16	2nd	8 15 31 37 40
2022-02-28	3	2nd	4 15 24 31 33
2022-02-17	6	2nd	5 15 24 40 43
2022-01-27	5	1st	15 19 26 40 42
2022-01-10	2	3rd	8 13 15 35 47
2022-01-03	20	1st	15 22 26 37 47
2021-10-25	11	1st	15 31 36 43 45
2021-09-16	1	2nd	13 15 23 37 44
2021-09-13	2	1st	15 16 19 34 44
2021-09-06	20	1st	15 20 28 33 34
2021-06-28	8	3rd	1 9 15 22 34
2021-05-31	43	1st	15 19 20 36 43
2020-12-31	11	1st	15 26 33 34 44
2020-11-23	1	3rd	3 10 15 29 30
2020-11-19	8	3rd	1 3 15 18 29
2020-10-22	23	3rd	2 6 15 21 43
2020-08-03	14	1st	15 16 33 36 45
2020-06-15	1	2nd	4 15 21 23 42
2020-06-11	8	3rd	5 6 15 22 32
2020-05-14	10	2nd	12 15 36 38 41
2020-04-09	7	2nd	13 15 23 27 37
2020-03-16	1	3rd	2 4 15 20 38
2020-03-12	16	3rd	7 12 15 39 42
2020-01-16	3	2nd	8 15 29 30 47
2020-01-06	17	2nd	10 15 16 22 39
2019-11-07	7	2nd	11 15 16 21 38
2019-10-14	10	3rd	2 5 15 21 23
2019-09-09	7	2nd	9 15 21 23 26
2019-08-15	4	3rd	4 8 15 17 32
2019-08-01	4	1st	15 16 21 37 40
2019-07-18	3	1st	15 23 25 38 42
2019-07-08	12	2nd	5 15 18 32 36
2019-05-27	1	2nd	7 15 41 42 44
2019-05-23	1	1st	15 21 31 44 45
2019-05-20	1	3rd	4 9 15 29 44
2019-05-16	4	1st	15 23 31 32 33
2019-05-02	5	3rd	11 12 15 16 47
2019-04-15	4	2nd	7 15 32 46 47
2019-04-01	—	2nd	6 15 24 35 41