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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · since Sep 2025 rules — 109 draws, 4 from 1–35.
Drawn 14 times in 109 draws against 12.5 expected, +0.46σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 14 times in 109 draws · average wait 7.9 draws · longest completed wait 26 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 7 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 10 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 5 | 1st | 481031 |
| 2026-09-21 | 6 | 1st | 452934 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8 | 3rd | 23411 |
| 2026-08-03 | 3 | 1st | 4151920 |
| 2026-07-23 | 7 | 1st | 481016 |
| 2026-06-29 | 10 | 1st | 461132 |
| 2026-05-25 | 26 | 1st | 462835 |
| 2026-02-23 | 8 | 2nd | 243032 |
| 2026-01-26 | 5 | 2nd | 141217 |
| 2026-01-08 | 10 | 2nd | 24811 |
| 2025-12-04 | 3 | 1st | 482231 |
| 2025-11-24 | 5 | 1st | 471416 |
| 2025-11-06 | 7 | 1st | 4101213 |
| 2025-10-13 | — | 1st | 461827 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.