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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · since Sep 2025 rules — 109 draws, 4 from 1–35.
Drawn 10 times in 109 draws against 12.5 expected, −0.74σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 10 times in 109 draws · average wait 6.9 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 3 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 14 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 3 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 3 | 2nd | 132233 |
| 2026-09-14 | 4 | 1st | 361226 |
| 2026-08-31 | 14 | 2nd | 23411 |
| 2026-07-13 | 18 | 2nd | 13826 |
| 2026-05-11 | 3 | 2nd |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 3 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 132126 |
| 2026-04-30 | 4 | 1st | 351335 |
| 2026-04-16 | 2 | 1st | 3121433 |
| 2026-04-09 | 10 | 1st | 3111725 |
| 2026-03-05 | 4 | 2nd | 231929 |
| 2026-02-19 | — | 2nd | 131633 |