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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · since Sep 2025 rules — 110 draws, 4 from 1–35.
Drawn 12 times in 110 draws against 12.6 expected, −0.17σ. Each draw is independent: after 14 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 12 times in 110 draws · average wait 8.4 draws · longest completed wait 28 · waiting 14 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 2 | 3rd | 1131632 |
| 2026-08-17 | 7 | 2nd | 7162122 |
| 2026-07-23 | 4 | 4th | 481016 |
| 2026-07-09 | 28 | 4th | 561016 |
| 2026-04-02 | 12 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2nd |
| 1161727 |
| 2026-02-19 | 17 | 3rd | 131633 |
| 2025-12-22 | 7 | 3rd | 5131627 |
| 2025-11-27 | 1 | 2nd | 13161834 |
| 2025-11-24 | 7 | 4th | 471416 |
| 2025-10-30 | 2 | 2nd | 9161931 |
| 2025-10-23 | 5 | 2nd | 6162732 |
| 2025-10-06 | — | 2nd | 12161821 |