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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · since Sep 2025 rules — 109 draws, 4 from 1–35.
Drawn 4 times in 109 draws against 12.5 expected, −2.55σ. Testing all 35 numbers at once means about 0.4 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 2.9e-4 and this does not pass it.
Drawn 4 times in 109 draws · average wait 14.7 draws · longest completed wait 19 · waiting 14 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Too few completed waits to plot a distribution for this number alone.
Sort a draw and 28 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 22 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 28 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 28 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 14 | 2nd | 5283134 |
| 2026-07-02 | 11 | 3rd | 1172830 |
| 2026-05-25 | 19 | 3rd | 462835 |
| 2026-03-19 | — | 4th | 8202228 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 28 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.