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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · since Sep 2025 rules — 109 draws, 4 from 1–35.
Drawn 7 times in 109 draws against 12.5 expected, −1.64σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 7 times in 109 draws · average wait 10.3 draws · longest completed wait 20 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 17 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 18 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 30 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 9 | 4th | 14232930 |
| 2026-08-27 | 5 | 4th | 2101730 |
| 2026-08-10 | 11 | 4th | 7192130 |
| 2026-07-02 | 20 | 4th | 1172830 |
| 2026-04-23 | 15 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 4th |
| 13172930 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2 | 4th | 9252630 |
| 2026-02-23 | — | 3rd | 243032 |