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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · since Sep 2025 rules — 109 draws, 4 from 1–35.
Drawn 15 times in 109 draws against 12.5 expected, +0.77σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 15 times in 109 draws · average wait 7.7 draws · longest completed wait 49 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 1 | 3rd | 481031 |
| 2026-10-05 | 5 | 1st | 10121314 |
| 2026-09-17 | 4 | 1st | 10171833 |
| 2026-09-03 | 2 | 1st | 10111418 |
| 2026-08-27 | 10 | 2nd | 2101730 |
| 2026-07-23 | 2 | 3rd | 481016 |
| 2026-07-16 | 2 | 2nd | 5101931 |
| 2026-07-09 | 12 | 3rd | 561016 |
| 2026-05-28 | 49 | 1st | 10242529 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2 | 1st | 10121720 |
| 2025-12-01 | 6 | 2nd | 7101418 |
| 2025-11-10 | 1 | 2nd | 6102224 |
| 2025-11-06 | 1 | 2nd | 4101213 |
| 2025-11-03 | 11 | 2nd | 8101831 |
| 2025-09-25 | — | 1st | 10132935 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.