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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · since Sep 2025 rules — 110 draws, 4 from 1–35.
Drawn 11 times in 110 draws against 12.6 expected, −0.47σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 11 times in 110 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 21 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 25 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 25 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 25 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 21 | 3rd | 282528 |
| 2026-07-30 | 1 | 3rd | 5112529 |
| 2026-07-27 | 10 | 2nd | 18252631 |
| 2026-06-22 | 7 | 3rd | 7142531 |
| 2026-05-28 | 13 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 25 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 3rd |
| 10242529 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1 | 3rd | 5112529 |
| 2026-04-09 | 11 | 4th | 3111725 |
| 2026-03-02 | 7 | 2nd | 9252630 |
| 2026-02-05 | 2 | 4th | 2131725 |
| 2026-01-29 | 12 | 3rd | 19202527 |
| 2025-12-18 | — | 3rd | 14232526 |