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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · since Sep 2025 rules — 109 draws, 4 from 1–35.
Drawn 13 times in 109 draws against 12.5 expected, +0.16σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 13 times in 109 draws · average wait 8.4 draws · longest completed wait 17 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 23 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 23 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 23 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 13 | 2nd | 14232930 |
| 2026-08-13 | 2 | 3rd | 6112326 |
| 2026-08-06 | 17 | 4th | 19202223 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2 | 3rd | 11122329 |
| 2026-06-01 | 10 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 23 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 4th |
| 18202123 |
| 2026-04-27 | 9 | 3rd | 12182329 |
| 2026-03-26 | 4 | 3rd | 2172324 |
| 2026-03-12 | 1 | 4th | 6192223 |
| 2026-03-09 | 7 | 4th | 122123 |
| 2026-02-12 | 16 | 2nd | 21232735 |
| 2025-12-18 | 9 | 2nd | 14232526 |
| 2025-11-17 | 11 | 3rd | 17192324 |
| 2025-10-09 | — | 4th | 9111323 |