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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Toto Auswahlwette · every number
In Toto Auswahlwette under the 6/45 + 1/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 107 draws, 6 from 1–45.
Drawn 15 times in 107 draws against 14.3 expected, +0.21σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 1 time, counted separately.
Drawn 15 times in 107 draws · average wait 7.3 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 6 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 8 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 3 | 1st | 41516233437 |
| 2026-08-23 | 3 | 2nd | 346133335 |
| 2026-08-02 | 19 | 2nd | 1419384143 |
| 2026-03-22 | 1 | 2nd | 349162141 |
| 2026-03-15 | 9 | 2nd | 14591114 |
| 2026-01-11 | 9 | 1st | 4614222433 |
| 2025-11-09 | 8 | 2nd | 2414172629 |
| 2025-09-14 | 26 | 1st | 41020303137 |
| 2025-03-16 | 8 | 1st | 4514192831 |
| 2025-01-19 | 2 | 1st | 41825272835 |
| 2025-01-05 | 1 | 1st | 47892630 |
| 2024-12-29 | 3 | 1st | 4511133440 |
| 2024-12-08 | 4 | 1st | 41116202227 |
| 2024-11-10 | 6 | 1st | 4921293438 |
| 2024-09-29 | — | 2nd | 1410142136 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.