Number 4

In Lightning Lotto under the 5/49 · since May 2026 rules — 139 draws, 5 from 1–49.

15times drawn · chance expected 14 +0.23σ

42draws waiting · a wait this long: 1% for any number

6.3average wait between appearances · chance says 9.8

22longest completed wait · 79% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 139 draws against 14.2 expected, +0.23σ. Each draw is independent: after 42 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 139 draws · average wait 6.3 draws · longest completed wait 22 · waiting 42 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest14 · chance 11.5
2nd smallest1 · chance 3.3
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.2
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

12 14 17 16 24 37

Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 48 numbers; chance expects about 14 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-08-30	7	1st	4 10 17 21 29
2026-08-23	1	1st	4 12 41 45 48
2026-08-22	1	1st	4 11 12 36 37
2026-08-21	1	1st	4 17

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/49 tonight whatever it did last week.