Number 15

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

13times drawn · chance expected 13 −0.07σ

4draws waiting · a wait this long: 61% for any number

6.7average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

18longest completed wait · 51% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 13 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, −0.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 13 times in 86 draws · average wait 6.7 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 4 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 1.1
2nd smallest4 · chance 3.9
3rd smallest6 · chance 4.8
4th smallest3 · chance 2.6
5th smallest0 · chance 0.6
6th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

11 12 17 23 26 37

Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 7 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-15	18	3rd	2 11 15 16 25 32
2016-06-27	11	3rd	9 14 15 23 31 34
2016-06-16	3	2nd	12 15 20 23 30 36

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.