Number 20

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

16times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.83σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

5.7average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

16longest completed wait · 72% chance of one at least that long

20 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 16 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, +0.83σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 20, draw by draw

Drawn 16 times in 86 draws · average wait 5.7 draws · longest completed wait 16 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 20 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.4
2nd smallest2 · chance 2.3
3rd smallest6 · chance 5.3
4th smallest6 · chance 5.3
5th smallest2 · chance 2.3
6th smallest0 · chance 0.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

30 19 38 39 6 7

Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 5 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 20 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 20 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-19	5	4th	4 11 14 20 28 39
2016-07-14	6	2nd	5 20 21 30 32 38
2016-07-08	3	3rd	10 16 20 21 24 30

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 20 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.