Number 10

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

15times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.53σ

3draws waiting · a wait this long: 72% for any number

5.1average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

27longest completed wait · 17% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 15 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, +0.53σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 15 times in 86 draws · average wait 5.1 draws · longest completed wait 27 · waiting 3 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest3 · chance 3.5
2nd smallest6 · chance 6.4
3rd smallest3 · chance 3.9
4th smallest3 · chance 1.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

21 9 18 24 28 38

Never drawn alongside 4 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 5 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-16	5	2nd	6 10 11 30 37 39
2016-07-11	2	4th	3 4 5 10 16 38
2016-07-09	1	2nd	8 10 13 18 25 28

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.