Number 17

In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

16times drawn · chance expected 13 +0.83σ

14draws waiting · a wait this long: 11% for any number

4.5average wait between appearances · chance says 6.5

11longest completed wait · 96% chance of one at least that long

17 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 16 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, +0.83σ. Each draw is independent: after 14 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 17, draw by draw

Drawn 16 times in 86 draws · average wait 4.5 draws · longest completed wait 11 · waiting 14 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 17 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 0.8
2nd smallest3 · chance 3.7
3rd smallest5 · chance 5.9
4th smallest6 · chance 4.1
5th smallest1 · chance 1.3
6th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

11 26 2 29 31 1

Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 5 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 17 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 17 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-07-05	4	2nd	11 17 20 22 38 39
2016-07-01	11	5th	1 2 7 10 17 21
2016-06-20	9	2nd	9 17 22 26 29 32

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 17 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.