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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Daily Million Plus 2pm · every number
In Daily Million Plus 2pm under the 6/39 + 1/38 · Apr 2016 – Jul 2016 rules — 86 draws, 6 from 1–39 (an earlier era).
Drawn 7 times in 86 draws against 13.2 expected, −1.86σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 7 times in 86 draws · average wait 11.2 draws · longest completed wait 16 · waiting 7 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 36 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 15 of the other 38 numbers; chance expects about 15 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 36 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 36 →
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 36 is drawn with probability 6/39 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2016-06-01 | 6 | 6th | 111517182736 |
| 2016-05-26 | 15 | 5th | 6720233637 |
| 2016-05-11 | 5 | 6th | 182122273436 |
| 2016-05-06 | — | 5th | 113133353638 |